This is the factor that's likely to determine whether there's a U.S. recession
The U.S. economy is in a confusing place. The fundamentals look strong: Jobs are plentiful, inflation is tame, wages are rising and the economy continues to grow a tad above 2 percent, which most experts think is the Goldilocks pace.
Yet a lot of credible voices are warning that a recession could come by 2021, if not sooner.
They point out that the bond market is showing a big red flag (the inverted yield curve) and job openings are starting to fall, factors that normally signal down...