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This is the factor that's likely to determine whether there's a U.S. recession

Aug 29, 2019 - Washington Post Blogs

The U.S. economy is in a confusing place. The fundamentals look strong: Jobs are plentiful, inflation is tame, wages are rising and the economy continues to grow a tad above 2 percent, which most experts think is the Goldilocks pace.

Yet a lot of credible voices are warning that a recession could come by 2021, if not sooner.

They point out that the bond market is showing a big red flag (the inverted yield curve) and job openings are starting to fall, factors that normally signal down...