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Political economy predictions for 2019 (with subjective probabilities)

Jan 02, 2019 - Washington Post Blogs

A good economic forecaster is one who can convincingly explain why her forecasts are wrong, which is to say: Such forecasts should be ingested with lots of salt. With that caveat in mind, here are six predictions about key outcomes this year. To be more upfront about my confidence or lack thereof in each guesstimate, I've added my totally subjective percent likelihood for each one.

The federal deficit is going up (90%). This one's a pretty sure bet...